The wisdom of crowds in one mind: Experimental evidence on repeatedly asking oneself instead of others
نویسندگان
چکیده
Under the right circumstances, groups can be remarkably intelligent and statistical aggregates of individuals’ decisions can outperform individual’s and expert’s decisions. Examples of this wisdom of crowds effect range from markets, auctions, political polls, internet search engines to quiz shows (Galton, 1907; Lorge, Fox, Davitz, & Brenner, 1958; Surowiecki, 2004; Page, 2007; Mannes, 2009). Recently, Vul and Pashler (2008) and Herzog and Hertwig (2009) demonstrated a wisdom of crowds effect within one mind by an experiment, in which individuals could respond to the same question a second time. The underlying idea is that individual estimates are draws from an internal probability distribution such that their different estimates represent answers derived from different arguments or bodies of knowledge (Vul & Pashler, 2008; Stewart, 2009), relating to the intuitive idea of sleeping on difficult decisions.
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